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2022 Hurricane Predictions

Experts anticipate areas along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Ocean coastline have an above-average probability of hurricanes making landfall this summer and fall. Know what to expect from the stormy season ahead.

With another big storm season in most experts’ forecasts, 2022 is shaping up to be one for the record books. Current 2022 hurricane predictions from Colorado State University say the Atlantic hurricane season could see 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, with five potentially reaching Category 3, 4, or 5 (i.e., major) intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Probability of at least one Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall:

  • Entire continental U.S. coastline = 76% (average for last century is 52%)
  • S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida = 51% (average for last century is 31%)
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas = 50% (average for last century is 30%)

The Atlantic hurricane season takes place between June 1 and November 30. If reality lives up to the preseason expectations, residents of these coastal regions could be looking at a very stormy season. When disaster might strike, knowing what to expect can make a world of difference. Discover what our professionals have to say about what to expect this hurricane season, what necessary precautions are recommended, and how to ensure a swift recovery.

La Niña Likely

The likelihood of a La Niña is relatively high this summer. It looks like it will affect worldwide weather patterns and likely cause more Atlantic Ocean hurricanes.

La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and is associated with strong winds near the ocean surface (trade winds), that cause cold water from the ocean’s depths to be brought to the surface in a process known as upwelling. When La Niña occurs, winds high up in the atmosphere in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean tend to be weaker. Strong upper-level winds tear apart hurricanes, while weaker winds (as expected this summer), favor hurricane development and intensification.

Warmer Ocean Waters in the Atlantic

Independent of La Niña, surface temperatures across the Atlantic are currently warmer than normal. This type of sea surface temperature configuration earlier in the year tends to cause warmer water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean – where most strong hurricanes form – later in the year. These sea surface anomaly patterns can certainly change during the coming months, but if they persist, they’ll provide the perfect fuel for developing storms in the hurricane season ahead.

Tracking a Stormy Season

The Colorado State University Meteorology Project team predicts there will be 20 named storms (tropical storms with 39 mile-per-hour winds or higher) in 2022. Of those, the team expects 10 will become hurricanes and five will become major hurricanes (hurricanes with 111 mile-per-hour winds or higher). These hurricane predictions place the likelihood of hurricane activity in 2022 at about 145 percent of the average season. By comparison, the average Atlantic hurricane season during 1991-2020 was 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes.

Forecast Parameters      Forecast for 2022            Average for 1991-2020

Named Storms                20                                       14.4

Named Storm Days         95                                       69.4

Hurricanes                       10                                       7.2

Hurricane Days                40                                       27.0

Major Hurricanes            5                                         3.2

Major Hurricane Days    11                                       7.4

 

How Accurate Are Hurricane Predictions?

While forecasters now have more reliable tools and technology to predict, diagnose, and track storms than they’ve ever had, it is important to note that these seasonal predictions are based on models which are inexact. For example, on average, Colorado State University’s June forecast is considered accurate to within two hurricanes. In 2022, Colorado State University is forecasting 10 hurricanes, which means that the observed value will likely be 8-12 hurricanes.

Moreover, scientists still lack the ability to predict the exact paths of where storms will strike months in advance and can only provide a best estimate as to the relative amount of storm activity, not an exact measure. Still, this information is invaluable for coastal residents who are eager to prepare for the season ahead.

What Does It Mean for Coastal Residents?

No matter how active a year it may be, it is crucial to remember that in any given season, many Gulf and Atlantic coast residents will not feel the effects of a hurricane. Yet it is also prudent to remember that it only takes one storm making landfall to inflict serious damage. While more active seasons typically have more landfalling hurricanes, one (or more) strong storms may make landfall in otherwise quiet hurricane seasons. A great example of this is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Only one major hurricane formed in all of 1992, but Hurricane Andrew – a Category 5 hurricane at the time of landfall – caused devastation in south Florida when it came ashore. Coastal residents should always take precautions when storms are approaching, as a severe storm’s effects can be deadly.

What Creates More Hurricane Damage?

Storm Surge

One of the greatest threats posed by a landfalling hurricane is storm surge, or the increase in seawater level during a hurricane. Storm surges can be unbelievably deadly, and often lead to destructive flooding that can persist for hours or even days after the storm has passed. Large battering waves and the accompanying flooding can result in loss of life, destruction of property, and extensive erosion of beaches and coastal environments.

Heavy Rain

The amount of rain generated in a hurricane isn’t directly related to the hurricane’s strength, but rather the speed it travels, its size, and the geography where it lands. When heavy rain from a hurricane hits land, it often causes flash flooding of rivers and streams and, like the flooding produced by storm surge, this flooding can last for days after the storm itself has passed.

Hurricane-Force Winds

Another of the deadly threats that a hurricane produces is winds exceeding hurricane force (74 miles per hour or greater). Hurricane-force winds can easily destroy property, rip trees out of the ground, and transform debris such as signs, roofing and siding, and other items into airborne missiles. Winds can remain at hurricane strength even several hours after a hurricane makes landfall.

Tornadoes

Hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes when they come onshore. The friction that is generated when a hurricane makes landfall reduces winds near the surface, while winds higher up in the atmosphere remain strong. This creates a horizontal spin in the atmosphere, which can be then converted into vertical spin when it encounters a thunderstorm updraft. This vertical spin can sometimes lead to tornadoes, which can subsequently cause extreme wind damage.

tornado destroyed house

Steps to Take Before the Storm

When staring down a hurricane, every second counts. Thankfully, there are some easy ways property owners can prepare for the upcoming storm season.

  • Connect with a restoration partner to customize a pre-loss action plan and determine how to react should disaster strike. Devising a pre-hurricane plan is the most crucial precaution a property owner should take before disaster.
  • Develop an Emergency Access Letter and Master Service Agreement so service providers can access the facility and restoration contractors can begin remediation work as quickly as possible.
  • Prepare the property by making sure emergency supplies are in place, fuel tanks are full, equipment is covered, critical documents protected, data systems backed up, and evacuation routes and procedures are in place.
  • Communicate the evacuation plan with employees and other residents to ensure everyone knows routes and procedures.
  • Give critical contact info and directions to suppliers, vendors, and other partners so there aren’t any lapses in communication when time is of the essence.
  • Determine if temporary power or a temporary facility is needed to reduce business interruption time.
  • Provide instructions for shutting off water, power, and gas lines so any employee authorized can do so before the storm.
  • Determine security needs such as camera monitoring, physical security, fencing, or boards for windows and doors.
  • Track the weather and stay alert. Storms can move fast, so it’s important to stay updated on the latest conditions. Safety is more important than any property, so be sure to leave enough time to get out of harm’s way.

 

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